Football Index – A New Strategy

Last time I wrote I explained how I got started on Football Index, the best advice that I had received, and how I had progressed in the seven short months that I have been a part of this awesome platform.

It was during this write up that I came across @GingerPirlo_FI’s blog which intrigued me and made me want to try something new. I highly recommend giving him a follow on twitter and keeping an eye on his blog https://thegingerpirlo.com/ – “Can I make a living from Football Index?” where he has had an enormous amount of success in the past month.

Now I have a slightly more modest budget than the aforementioned but that doesn’t mean I can’t try and get a decent return on a month by month basis. As I stated in my previous post, I haven’t placed a conventional bet at the bookies since the Christmas period and I have no intention of doing so either, all thanks to Football Index.

With that being said, what’s my plan? What’s the strategy?

The Plan

Honestly, it’s really quite simple but takes a bit of time when it comes to researching the correct players for my portfolio. But what am I looking for, and what do I expect?

When coming up with my strategy I was thinking, ‘what drives the prices of a player?’ and ‘what dictates if he is over/underpriced?’. Now at the end of the day, a player’s price is whatever you’re willing to pay for him and there is no right or wrong answer. The index is honestly an opinion-based game. Other users may think differently but this is my perception.

The one thing I have noticed is that when match days come around, players that are in form and already have goals and assists to their names are quite regularly seeing a rise prior to team selections being announce. If they have a good game, they tend to sustain a higher price than 24 hours prior as users see value in the hold.

My aim is to find players to hold for 30 days (IPD window);

  • To find players who have decent form.
  • Play for a top ten team in their respective division.
  • Have a nice run of fixtures coming up.
  • Ideal if they have international football although not essential.
  • And the kicker, are valued at less than £1 per share.

Sounds like slim pickings, but there is an opportunity to find a gem.

What do I think will happen?

Providing there are no injuries and the way the market is currently; I’d hope to see a rise purely in capital appreciation. However, if their form continues and the players I choose get goals, assists and clean sheets I’d hope that this would enhance their potential of prices rising.

I’m still on the fence as to whether there is any profitability with goalkeepers so I will be buying one just to test the water and see if it is an avenue worth exploring deeper.

To put it simply;

  • Capital appreciation – maybe a few pennies over a 30-day period.
  • Continued form – clean sheets, goals and assists could see their price rise dramatically.
  • IPD – In play dividends are an added bonus at this point.
  • Injuries – A bad injury could have a detrimental effect to the price. Especially if the spread is pretty low for an IS.

With regards to the last point, I will only be choosing a handful of players, 10-15 maximum as I don’t want to be so overwhelmed with players that I can’t keep an eye on all of their games and potential injury crises.

What’s next?

In my next post I will give my first 30-day update and reveal the players I chose, if they were profitable and any dividends they may have won.

If there’s anything I’ve missed, send me a message and I’ll answer any questions.

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